Suchergebnisse

Interregional integration is the most important property and form of manifestation of the unity of any economic space, in particular Russian. The study of this phenomenon is a significant area of research on the spatial development of the country. In the article the historical preconditions of the used approaches based on the theory of economic equilibrium have been studied and systematized. We have described and analyzed various forms of spatial economic equilibrium which are adequate to the modern level of development and mathematical representation of economy. The development of the concept of economic equilibrium in economic and mathematical models is presented. It is shown that the simplicity of the mathematical structure of the OMIOM allows, using all the concepts of economic equilibrium, to analyze the features of interregional economic interactions and assess the degree of economic interdependence of the regions of Russia. The economic space in the OMIOM is presented discretely, in the context of macro-regions, which are federal districts or their large fragments, uniting several subjects of the federation. The economy of each macroregion is presented in the context of the aggregated sectors of production of goods and services. For sectors with transportable products, interregional transport and economic ties are taken into account.

The article discusses the problems of spatial development of the Russian Federation, analyzes the causes and trends of changes in the spatial structure of macroeconomic indicators by federal districts in the period 2008–2015 which witnessed the cyclical nature of economic development in Russia, and assesses the factors of regional growth for the period under consideration and the potential for further development of the Russian federal districts. The research focuses on the economy of the Russian federal districts in the period 2008–2015 characterized by the cyclical nature of the development of the Russian economy. On analyzing the periods of recession alone, it is almost impossible to obtain detailed information about the factors of economic growth. At the same time, analyzing merely the periods of growth does not take into account the possibilities of crises and their consequences. For a more detailed analysis, the time boundaries of the study were divided into three periods 2008–2010, 2010–2013 and 2013–2015.The work is aimed at analyzing the changes in the structures of macroeconomic indicators of the Russian Federation by federal districts in the period 2008–2015, determining the reasons and tendencies of their changes, studying the factors of regional growth in 2008–2015, and assessing the potential for further development of the regions of the Russian Federation. The research toolkit includes the methods for analyzing structural changes as well as the methods of logarithmic and proportional division. The analysis of structural changes was used both when considering GRP growth rate at constant prices and when studying the factors of growth at total labor productivity. Logarithmic division was used when dividing the yield rises by the rises of each of the factors (e.g. decomposition of GRP rises in current prices). Proportional division was used to assess the impact of regional industries on economic growth as a whole.

With the turbulence in global trade and the necessity to develop non-commodity exports in Russia, the choice of an effective strategy for exporters' conduct in the food market is becoming vitally important these days. Agent-based models simulating the behavior of decentralized self-learning agents with their own goals and capabilities can be used as the tools for analyzing and predicting market movements. The paper presents the results of the agent-based approach to market modeling by the example of barley, which is one of the top commodity items of the Russian food exports on
the basis of FAOSTAT and Rosstat data for the period 1997–2017. As a result of the study, an agent-based model of the world barley market was built, and a series of calculated experiments was carried out in the AnyLogic development environment with the changes in such factors as the level of global demand, the amount of customs duties, the exporting companies' funds in order to determine the strategic conduct of the exporting agents taking into account the limited rationality of the participants in communicative interaction. The proposed approach develops modern theory of consumer behavior and simulation, and the results of the study can be used in the formation of development programs
for the Russian agro-food exports.

The resilience of a political, economic or trade alliances of countries or regions depends significantly on to what extent parties of a union consider their membership as beneficial. Dependent on predominant assessments, there may occur a complete disintegration of multi-regional systems, an expansion or contraction in the composition of participants, and maintenance of the status quo. The intensity of interregional exchange is used as an indicator to measure the degree of the regional integration of economic system. The paper represents the capabilities of the coalition analysis method for estimating the degree of interdependence in the multi-regional economy of the Russian Federation. The authors present an analytical review of the structural and statistical models used for estimating the effects of interregional integration as well as substantiate the choice of the approach. The basis of the coalition analysis is the input-output method and the theory of cooperative games. Moreover, the spatial input-output model of the Russian economy is developed on the methodology of national accounts statistics in terms of federal districts. We use a semi-dynamic version of the optimization multi-regional input-output model (OMIOM) on the statistical database of 2013 for developing the forecast up to 2030. On this basis, a coalition analysis of interregional interaction effects is carried out. The calculations revealed a high degree of regional integration as well as of involvement of the national economy into the world one. Depending on the structure of production and consumption of the federal districts' economies, there are varying capacities to adapt to hypothetical changes in the volume of interregional links. The North-Western, Urals, Siberian and Far Eastern federal districts better adapt to the break of interregional links in comparison to the rest of the regions. The Central, North-Caucasian, Southern and Volga districts benefit more of their integration into the multiregional system and of the access to international markets. Prospects for using coalition analysis are associated with the introduction of an equilibrium condition, which will allow us to assess the degree of equivalence of interregional exchange. © 2018 Institute of Economics Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. ; Представлен аналитический обзор структурных и статистических моделей, применяемых для оценки эффектов межрегиональной интеграции. Предложен коалиционный анализ эффектов межрегиональных взаимодействий.